Wednesday, November 30, 2005

10 Rules for a Hollywood StartUp


nice doggies
Originally uploaded by redbarren.
1. Get a Pink Razr like Paris until they are officially released, then ditch it for a Sidekick 3.
2. Ditch your film buddies from the Video Store like Quentin.
3. Never Visit San Francisco, and dont know what the Valley is, and vice versa.
4. If you are C or D List or sick of being in Paris' shadow, be engaged, for a shorter time than Cisco, or better yet get an anullment like Brittney, Bridget Jones etc
5. Dont have any idea what an API is or what it is like not to be a VIP.
6. Get a non dog or cat pet, like a Monkey : dont chase the monkey like Eminem and blame it on prescription pills.
7. Hang out with people that record kinky sex and then blackmail you and are involved in murder cases you have to appear at.
8. Watch Terry Semel's daughter on Reality TV. Horses are sexy see rule 6.
9. Make sure whatever money you make all your minders or mothering-one nighters take it all like Pdiddy, or get into a FBI case like MurderInc.
10. Never have a blog as its better for Awful Truth or Popbitch to break the story.

Carver Joins the Bubble 2.0 Snark Group


kimber signs life away
Originally uploaded by redbarren.
He slashed Kimber, asked her to sign her life/ blog/ copyright/ adsense revenue away, offered her below Calcanis earnings multiples for her Facial Recognition Mirror 2.0 Technology, took her Jimmy Choos TypePad Pro Account, Real Life sex dolls and never was her splogged comments html'd again.

Message to Carver : Julian McMahon is from Australia, his father was Prime Minister here for the shortest time in history, its why he left : "Lose the mask" Carver, I will Tag You, if you dont watch out I like Robert Scoble (who with Jeff Jarvis has a continuous partial always on attention to his vanity mentions and subscriber numbers on a RSS PubSub Watchlist), some of us, Carver, are trying to snark for a living. I'll slit your XHTML like Yahoo disregarding Ajax in a Maps API Mashup.

Tara Reid Diggs Digg


boob job tara
Originally uploaded by redbarren.
"What's the worst thing about Digg? What would you eliminate, what would you revamp, and what would you tweak?" My Recommendation : Rather than digging a story users could "Tara" it. Just dont watch Wildon Tara in Europe. Roadkill, and every episode appears exactly the same. Surrealism. Bye Bye Miss America Pie.. She is Now doing the Male Paris... Hollywood is so more interesting then Web 2.0... I was going to upload all my Pics on Riya and see if I could name every Hollywood starlet, but Tara is speaking louder and louder.. and im on OSX. Please make Tara happy, so I can be happy... I would like more stories on each page though, are you listening rojo ? let me browse the endless page..... and digg.. what about some pics... i know resizing etc is hard too...

Tuesday, November 29, 2005

M+A Multiples for Calcanis Apple Juice


BFFE
Originally uploaded by Margie1.
Organic Fruit Juice is all the go Downunder and like all good investors Mr Calcanis is a contrarian; Similarly smart entrepreneurs (even those who have sold their companies and are now employees) like to talk down their business segment, because it doesnt draw attention or raise prices. (which could drive up amount bloggers want to be paid and terms of assigning copyright etc) However, and whatever, I remember a couple years ago (lets call Web 1.5 days) P/E's for acquisition of Internet businesses averaged at around 40 times earnings. That should have only gone up : We'll see when Google close an earlier stage Riya @ $40-$50M vs later stage Yahoo's Flickr @ $30-$40m

Internetstock blog have analysed CNET as a point of comparison : P/E: We apply a 42X multiple to our 2006 proforma EPS : Also remember Google @ 52 P/E - i would think P/E of 35-50 depending on growth for private Blog' Co' eg AlwaysOn current capital raising would be a guide although its not an acquisition).. To me, Calcanis' P/E numbers (5-30) seem low : Of course, any 2.0 deal @ under the $50m purchase price, there is a large premium for either brand, engineers, audience or technology, which in the case of blog properties like boingboing, would be skewed to brand + audience assets (plus an execution/segment leadership premium as per Calcanis did/got) Not that Im saying there is a Skype like valuation for Boing, because with blogs there isnt the trillion dollar telco market to displace. Its like buying a high growth niche magazine, with some GEMAYA - AOL catch-up phat thrown in. (i remember when hotmail was bought for $400M and had 10m users : $40 per user, personally i think $25-$50 is the resting price for a somewhat qualified user as one part of the triangulation process - mckinsey types look at the value of cable tv subscribers and other media types as benchmarked peers + NPV DCF's blaagh etc) I agree that eyeballs by themselves are pretty useless as are revenue, and even profit as singular measures - if that was the case, buy yourself a fashionable magazine or domain hijacking business. ("Domainers have their heroes, and one of the most mysterious is a man named Yun Ye, a Chinese citizen living in Vancouver, British Columbia. He is credited with boosting the entire market when he sold his portfolio of more than 100,000 domains to Marchex. His names were bringing in more than $20 million a year in revenues -- and $19 million in profits -- when Marchex paid the equivalent of 8.6 times annual earnings, based on figures provided in SEC documents.")

Mr Calcanis : "Boingboing, like any other web property, is worth 1-10x revenue and 5-30x earnings. So, if BB does 30-50k a month/360-600k a year (which seems possible to me based on the ~5m page views a month) it would be worth between 500k and $3M (based on revenue since with five mouths and server hosting to pay for it doesn't really have earnings--yet!). Those numbers fall into line with my calculation of a really loyal user being worth $1-3."

I like MrManus analysis, how do you like them apples ?


Will: Do you like apples?
Clark: Yeah.
Will: Well, I got her number. How do you like them apples?

Monday, November 28, 2005

First Day at Google, in the Cessna 182RG


in pakistan
Originally uploaded by redbarren.
Loving this ex Google, Xoogler site, this time from "Ron", which rings too true to to be false :

"My first day at Google went like this:

5:30 AM, wake up.
6:00 AM drive to Burbank airport.
6:30 AM stand in line at the Southwest airlines gate to get one of those now defunct plastic boarding passes
7:30 AM board the plane
9:00 AM or so land in San Jose
9:30 AM get the rental car
10:00 roll up to the Googleplex

It was a murderous commute. Four hours, which I eventually whittled down to three after a year of optimizing. I went through various permutations of cabs, rental cars, having my wife drive me to and from the airport (that didn't go over well at all) before I finally settled into something that vaguely resembled a routine. I ultimately ended up driving two different cars back and forth between LA and San Jose, and on a couple of occasions I did my commute in a Cessna 182RG (I'm a pilot) which was just too cool for words." Read Rest. Or check out the View from Ron's, the first Adwords engineer, Google office, back in the day.

The Evan Williams vs Jim Collins Mash-Debate


where is warhol Llo
Originally uploaded by redbarren.
Evan Williams has a list for us to drive up on memeorandum :

10 RULES FOR WEB STARTUPS - EVAN WILLIAMS

#1: Be Narrow
#2: Be Different
#3: Be Casual
#4: Be Picky
#5: Be User-Centric
#6: Be Self-Centered
#7: Be Greedy
#8: Be Tiny
#9: Be Agile
#10: Be Balanced
#11 (bonus!): Be Wary
"Overgeneralized lists of business "rules" are not to be taken too literally. There are exceptions to everything."

In contrast, Jim Collins (who) spent 6 years writing 'Built to Last', which if not the highest selling business book ever, is close, and actually well written and excellently researched (Stanford ironically, vinteresting here) more importantly. (which as Rupert Murdoch says is rare amongst business books) : Jim's research is longitudinal and nicely contrasts with the here today gone tomorrow Web 2.0 principles. Collins' focus is on "how to separate out real timeless principles that make something great versus just happenstance or luck."

BUILT TO LAST COMPANIES - JIM COLLINS

#1: Be clock-builders, not time-tellers
#2: Embrace the “and”, reject the “or”
#3: More than profits
#4: Walk the talk
#5: Preserve the core ideology while stimulating progress
#6: Never-ending process
#7: Build the vision.

The only analysis I would make is that Williams Rule #8 'Be Tiny' seems incongruous with Collins' Rules 1 + 7 : 'Be Clock Builders' + 'Build the Vision'. I think focus is a great rule, but 'being tiny' as a mindset/rule, so you can flip the company for less than $50M to get around accounting issues with your true valuation is just the anthesis of entrepreneurship to me. evhead did sell his first company to Google and get his second podcasting one substantially funded, which I didnt, so The Farmer may be right, or lucky. Time etc

"#8: Be Tiny : It's standard web startup wisdom by now that with the substantially lower costs to starting something on the web, the difficulty of IPOs, and the willingness of the big guys to shell out for small teams doing innovative stuff, the most likely end game if you're successful is acquisition. Acquisitions are much easier if they're small. And small acquisitions are possible if valuations are kept low from the get go. And keeping valuations low is possible because it doesn't cost much to start something anymore (especially if you keep the scope narrow). Besides the obvious techniques, one way to do this is to use turnkey services to lower your overhead—Administaff, ServerBeach, web apps, maybe even Elance."

And the final speaker in this Mash-Debate is Jim Collins who will recite, thanks to Jeff Bezos, The first page of his book, Built to Last, which starts with a quote from The Founder of Hewlett Packard, who I dont think would have flipped a Burger Co' before;

"As I look back on my life's work, I'm probably most proud, of having helped to create a company that by virtues of its values, practices and success has had a tremendous impact on the way companies are managed around the world. And I'm particularly proud that I'm leaving behind an ongoing organization that can live on as a role model long after I'm gone."
William R.Hewlett, Co-Founder, Hewlett-Packard Organisation, 1990.

Sunday, November 27, 2005

Google PageRank.ppt 1998

Jeff Jarvis has been Listening to The Who


ysl jessica single
Originally uploaded by redbarren.
"FREE MY FEED SUBSCRIBERS. HAND OVER MY NUMBERS." Jeff Jarvis.

I'M FREE - THE WHO
I'm free,
And freedom tastes of reality,
I'm free-I'm free,
AN' I'm waiting for you to follow me.
If I told you what it takes
to reach the highest high,
You'd laugh and say 'nothing's that simple'
But you've been told many times before
Messiahs pointed to the door
And no one had the guts to leave the temple!
I'm free-I'm free
And freedom tastes of reality
I'm free-I'm free
And I'm waiting for you to follow me.
How can we follow?
How can we follow?

Give Jeff his feed numbers : When I crack 1000 RSS subscribers I want mine too.

Reading Brad Felds always excellent rss metrics
from the trenches view, I was thinking about how this compares to other media, and ironically its similar and different ! Different to The Google/CPC/CPA/CPL Customer Acquisition WorldView : Similar to Low Circulation Magazines which are often not audited, and tell you they have X thousand readership/circulation - It is then (in the traditional world) up to the advertiser/agency to draw out intrinsic value/audience based on understanding flaws of the system. In RSS' case though, we really want to advance on Google's self service, auction based, cost per click text advertisements benchmark, rather than regress. Like the podcasting tracking issues, the solution may not come from the aggregators.

Auditing is not required, said Jason Trubowitz, brand planning director at Mediacom. “It’s good if you can but it won’t automatically eliminate you from consideration. If we said we’d only do measured publications, half our media plan would fall off.”

Saturday, November 26, 2005

Update : del.icio.us has a Help Section !!!


white love
Originally uploaded by redbarren.
Ok. So to retrieve or reset my bookmarklet for delicious was in the "help" section, which snark snark is pretty obvious dont you think Ben. Well actually, no not at all. For starters, sections like 'help', 'settings', 'your account', etc are garbage. We dont use it. Users dont use it, and anyone that looks at log files knows that unless they are in Seattle, and the love-child of that hedge fund mathematician who decided to sell books, the only time post registration for these little buttons to be used are when a credit card is used. Forget Web 2.0 sites then.
Tagging needs to be made more mainstream yet not chcesy. Im honestly not sure its possible, but I hope delicious do it. What I really want is something with the hyperutility of del.icio.us (which is kinda like a 70's LandCruiser Jeep / Lamborghini Truck) and the newskool UI of riffs, minus the plastic community and ecommerce API's. Im thinking a Hummer for tagging. If it was a video game, blogging system, or myspace, I could choose my level, page template, and added extras. So yes thanks delicious, bookmarklets are under help. Oh, and Im still addicted.

Specific Example of del.icio.us Annoyance


jess mohair
Originally uploaded by redbarren.
Yeah, so del.icio.us is totally integrated into my (web link) classification, discovery, sharing, splicing and tagging behaviour on the internet. I spend more time on delicious than google, if you dont include gmail. So anyway, to tag on delicious thru firefox I have a bookmarklet on my toolbar - "remember this" / On the Imac it says "post to delicious" or similar. Anyway, something just happened to firefox (ibook keyboard is oversensitive on tracking pad) and the toolbar button sizes were minimised, which I resized, but the bookmarklet is gone. So, I go over to the delicious home page / my home / settings, but nothing.

Given tagging is the sole and core purpose of del.icio.us where, as a registered user, do I find my "tagging tool"... bookmarklet, call it what you want...

I love the whole European art house meets East Coast thing with del.icio.us. Im an addict. I love how the redesign when I rollover the navy blues are very strong now and the design sparser, cleaner, but still the same. I love the utility. Pure functionality. Anyway, where is my bookmarklet ? OK, back to del.icio.us and Ill see if I can find it : If it was in an obvious section I'll update post and apologise to Joshua and Fred.

Something Google. Something New


something borrowed
Originally uploaded by redbarren.
She left where she was born. Wasn't averse to hard work. Knew the casting couch, and how people wanted her in it. Was smart enough not to get nailed, too often. Sidekick II. Liked shoes, rotating her handbags and a nice cleansing white dress. Didn't think about google's white background, certainly used it when required. From Seth's (not OC) Blog : "12,000 people have taken a blind taste test . You do a search you're familiar with, it shows you the results from Google, MSN and Yahoo. Which is the most relevant, it asks? About 65% of those tested said that Yahoo or MSN was the most relevant.
Which reinforces my point that Google isn't "better" for most people if "better" means more relevant or deeper. Google is better because it feels better and quicker and leaner and easier to use. The story we tell ourselves about Google is very different, and we use it differently as a result. Think about that the next time you insist you need a "better" formula or a faster server or a stronger first baseman." She was Jessica Alba after all.

My Personalised Manual Spliced-LinkRoll Mashup


wow alba
Originally uploaded by redbarren.
I'd decided to rationalise my 1719 del.icio.us items, 700 flickr photos, 200 rss feeds, and was about to stop using gmail because I really f'n hate their "conversations" feature (pls Y-Oddpost "launch"), which enables me to track the thread, but not see an email from my mom 2 minutes ago. Brad Feld also mentioned the aged old problem (of at least the last 6 months :) "“I’ve subscribed to your del.icio.us tag feed – I like it more than your blog because it tells me what you are thinking about." Or as someone else explained it to me : "You do all the work that I dont have the time for, and I just click on the links. It's great." As for all the boring blog reading in my life I was getting close to finishing the Safran Foer book on the bedtable getting dust, but I also agreed with Marathon Man when he said "I've been seeing a lot of "this sucks, that's great, that sucks, this is great" blog posts lately, but rarely do I see anyone decompose what's actually bad or great and explaining why. Occasionally there's some stuff from an end-user perspective (especially whenever Google rolls something out), but I've been surprised by the general lack of technical depth and public debate."

So I set out to solve these problems (definitely feeling complicit in having mentioned Google before), when serendipity reared its head and I came across Xoogler : I was hungry, but thought do I really need a feeddigest, buzzboost, or delicious tagroll, to create my own personalised manual spliced linkroll mashup ? No way, I'll just xoogle it : "I'm going to give you five minutes," he told me. "When I come back, I want you to explain to me something complicated that I don't already know." I reached for a piece of scrap paper as my mind raced. What complicated thing did I know well enough to describe to Sergey?... I began regurgitating everything I could remember onto the paper in front of me: The five P's (or was it six?), the four M's, barriers to entry, differentiation on quality or price. By the time Sergey came back, I had enough to talk for ten minutes and was confident I could fill any holes with the three B's (Buckets of Baffling Bullshit). Sergey paid real attention as I went to the whiteboard and drew circles and squares and lots of arrows. I found out later that he asked almost everyone to do this, so if a candidate wasn't hired, at least it wasn't a total waste of his time... "We just hired a chef, so this is a temporary setup," Sergey told me. "And we've got two massage therapists coming in as well.".. Two weeks later, I started as Online Brand Manager."

My curiosity was also piqued on the equation between internal massage therapists vs PHD's in nano-Search : "One top-notch engineer is worth "300 times or more than the average," explains Alan Eustace, a Google vice president of engineering. He says he would rather lose an entire incoming class of engineering graduates than one exceptional technologist. Many Google services, such as Gmail and Google News, were started by a single person, he says."

And it seems if, like Jeremy Zawodny you forget to upgrade Itunes regularly you get done : "Now it turns out that the tracks really are there and the metadata is still around, but iTunes simply thinks the tracks are elsewhere. When I click one to play it, it asks me if I'd like to try finding. Of course, it doesn't mean that iTunes will do its best to locate it in my music collection. No, it means *I* must manually browse my library to point it at the file (as if there are no ID3 tags on the files that it could simply match against its own catalog)."

I do like the logo they have on gmail at moment for Thanksgiving, as annoying as gmail is and even though it's not celebrated at all in Australia, back to Xoogler : "Sergey provided the final sign off and he always encouraged Dennis to push the envelope a bit. Every once and a while things went off the rails. There was the time one of Dennis' Olympians displayed an unfortunate tenting in his toga and we received about a dozen emails asking why the Greek Guy on our homepage had a boner. And the time Dennis' Shichi Go San logo for Japan featuring a crane, a turtle and a traditional candy bag was read by many non-Japanese users as a turkey, a turtle and a thermometer."

I feel for Dave Winer here, I dont understand why the GEMAYA's of this world dont have a Secret Team of SAS trained Blogosphere CleanerUp'ers like Mr Wolf in Pulp Fiction (The Wolf: That's thirty minutes away. I'll be there in ten.), so when something goes wrong it can be fixed in 23 minutes before the next post which has to affect market cap by more than the cost it would take to solve the problem and stop snowballing : "Arrrgh, I plugged my new iPod into my old Mac and lost everything on it. Never got a confirmation dialog asking if it was okay if it wiped out the music and audiobooks that I painstakingly took hours of my time to set up. Never mind that the originals are on the other side of the United States. Honestly, how dare they design software that's so brutal?"

Back to Jeremy's Ipod Nano/Itunes 'Ode to Failure Mashup' (which btw almost reminds me of whether you are lying to your girlfriend if you dont tell her something, the answer to which is of course it is a lie unless you can prove it really is insignificant) : "Yeah, silent failures. The worst thing you can possibly do is to fail silently. The arrogance of which ever Apple person decided that it should fail silently is difficult to comprehend. There's absolutely no feedback in the UI at all when this happens."

Such smartypants at google, how do the rest of us compete (unless you have a PHD in common sense) : "So Jim Reese, a neurosurgeon became head of operations. Courtney, who was hired as a market researcher, became a media buyer, Dennis, the assistant webmaster, took on logo designs and search quality for our Korean site. I took on responsibility for building out customer service and internationalization, neither of which I knew anything about."

Does Don Dodge have the coolest name ever ?
"The idea behind Simple Sharing Extensions is to allow multi-directional synchronization of data and objects across multiple applications."

Brad Feld would be getting some pretty good data on this I'd say :) - "Fundamentally, the approach that I'm starting to see appear results in a false sense of a true subscriber count via personalization (presumably one of the goals of personalization is to get an accurate subscriber count), doesn't scale for the aggregators, the subscriber count quickly diverges from reality as people search for or share feeds, and it's hard to redirect your subscribers correctly if you decide to do something different later."

Hackoff, Im now sorta blooked, esp to the format
(how many blog posts, press releases, memeorandum articles can we all read) : "If you do think of anything — anything at all — you have my card. Anything you think of, no matter how strange, don’t filter it. Just tell me."

Even though there are a small amount of current acquisitions in the $50M-$500M valuation range from David Beisels excellent post, the deals in this size are for more interesting for valuation purposes to break-up the value of a Web 2 Co' in terms of technology, engineers, revenue, users, growth, profit, margins, industry etc (for companies such as feedburner, newsgator, technorati, del.icio.us, simplyhired, indeed for example) : "If one assumes that nearly all of the “undisclosed” prices are also under $50M, we can clearly see this bipolarization emerging. The internet acquisitions have been either small “venture acquisitions” (to Kedrosky’s point) –or– pricy purchases of companies with demonstrable viable business models (Shopping.com, ASK) or expansive reach (MySpace, Skype). As such, there has been a dearth of everything in between. There just aren’t that many companies in the $50M to $500M range being acquired by the big guys – they’re either gobbling them up early or waiting (perhaps to a fault) until these startups are too valuable to pass up."

Fred Wilson comments on the research : "I heard some say this summer that Yahoo! "was thinking that $25M is about the right price for these web services things". That is not a direct quote, but directionally correct. Buyers are either picking things up before they have a business model, scale, and significant VC investment, or much later. The middle ground (between $50M and $500M) is where the effect of VC comes into play."

Mr Feld had to jump back in with a 2005 investment; Yellowpages business really dont know whats about to hit them locally, hehe : "Judy's Book is at the forefront of three major trends: consumer-generated content, local search and word-of-mouth marketing,"

He must have just been to the GYM, ohmigod Im so funny. (GYM = Google, Yahoo, Microsoft for those living under a rock and "dont get" Web 2.0 and its soo amazing) : "When Sergey showed up, my initial impression was even more reassuring. He was wearing gym shorts, a tee shirt and inline skates. He had obviously been playing hard. I'd known better than to wear a tie, but he took office casual to a new level. I sat back and began toying with one of the rubber balls, feeling so relaxed that I accidentally removed its stopper, causing half the air inside to rush out with a hiss. Sergey seemed to find that amusing. He quickly pored over my resume, and began peppering me with questions. "What kind of marketing did you do that was most effective?" "What metrics did you use to measure it?" "What types of viral marketing did you do?" "What was your GPA?" I was doing fine until that last one. I just looked at him."

Dont scrape the scraper or Sergey will get on his skates and come after to you with his massage therapist : "Well I finally got the Cease and Desist email from Google for scraping Google news and then posting the results on a web site. So I guess I'll have to take those feeds down and convert them to use Yahoo! News search. I figure that using Gnews2rss[1] to feed into a personal aggregator is not going to worry them too much. The problem seems to be posting the results to a public website. If you do use gnews2rss, please host it yourself. I shouldn't really complain as I'm fairly clearly breaking their terms. However, I'm getting increasingly fed up that they don't have an XML (RSS or Atom) output from their search results. It's also become pretty disappointing that their SOAP API still only covers the main search engine and hasn't been extended to support the other parts of Google."

Feedburners post as Richard McManus broke, confirms RSS is the bomb : "If we manage syndicated content at a more atomic level by attaching “threads” to the item, we can provide tools to publishers that enable not just the tracking of the thread, but also use the thread as a communications line between the world of web services and the content item. We can essentially staple rules, patterns, and meta-data to the content in a live and “always on” way, wherever the content goes. Of course there will be nefarious entities (aka evildoers, spammers, and bad guys) that will “snip” the threads in order to hide their repurposing and use. So be it. The act of snipping removes any doubt about the bad guy’s intentions, and the publisher’s spiraling guesswork in determining good from bad repurposing is eliminated. Further, by inserting complexity into the equation for the spammer while not increasing the friction of any other reuse transaction, the spammer’s “zero marginal cost” business becomes more difficult at nobody’s expense (contrast this to email spam fighting techniques in which making the spammer’s life more difficult makes everybody else’s life more difficult too)."

"My GPA?" I asked. I hadn't thought about my GPA since the day they handed me my diploma in 1981. And given that Brown allowed me to take as many classes as I wanted with a pass/fail option, I'm not sure I ever knew what my GPA was. I laughed it off, thinking he was joking, but even after I had an offer on the table, the HR people kept pestering me for a college transcript and my S.A.T. scores. It was a classic Google moment. Your S.A.T. score was the measure of your intellectual capability; your GPA represented the numerical summary of your ability to execute on that potential. Your value to Google could be plotted using those two data points."

"Like anything, you want to be as quiet as possible. There have been misinterpretations that the woman can't make any noise, and that's just not true. It's nutty."

Google License Plate Frame If you're feeling lucky, let your fellow motorists know where things stand. (We can't guarantee they won't tailgate, though.) Google logo highlighted in white raised letters on a sturdy black plastic license plate frame. Fits most cars and attaches with two license plate screws (not included). Approx. 6" x 12". #GO40004


Price: $1.20

Wednesday, November 23, 2005

MySpace Metrics : Old Story


f600 testarosso maybe
Originally uploaded by redbarren.
Rupe buys holding company Intermix for $580M, because all teens use it, which he lacks.
He soon realises it has 32m registered members. Bonus.
Growing by 125,00 a day. For real.
If you are 16 years old in America, you use MySpace, or say you do.
Daily Sign ups have increased 10-20% since acquisition, forget subcultural complaints from people who would have never been hired by MTV.
More Page Views than Google. Today, Tomorrow.
Top 4 Property on the Web.
Not yet doing anything much outside LA-NY-SF
Google does $6 Billion + in Ad Revenue.
Rupert will be judged on whether he closes the Gap, as he has done in many categories, technologies, and countries. MySpace is anywhere from dead. It's about 15% into the cycle.
Newscorp stock is down though, even though he bought IGN (Gaming content) and Scout, etc
Whatever.

Om : "MySpace ranks higher than Google in terms of pageviews, but Google will gross $6 billion in revenues this year, while MySpace will generate about $30 million. The delta, which can be measured in orders of magnitude, is almost unbelievable. I realize the comparison is not directly apples to apples, but even so ! I bring this up because this is where Murdoch’s strategic opportunity lies… in eliminating that gap. Put another way, MySpace has a multi-billion dollar opportunity to exploit, which promises to break News Corp out of the media stock depression that it and all its fellow conglomerates have been suffering. Success on this front will demonstrate that News Corp can tap into the fastest growing segment of the advertising industry in a manner that befits Google and Yahoo!"

Tuesday, November 22, 2005

Now Crawling the Deep Web is Exciting


kates back at it go grrl
Originally uploaded by redbarren.
Dipsie. Sounds like a very smart model : Getting website owners, big and small, to pay to get their 'deep web' hidden pages, onto the Public Search Engine Optimised Internet. Kate is back. Pete's gone.

Coffee Time..


she's arrived
Originally uploaded by redbarren.
Taking bids on how much Michelle Leslie earns in first week in Australia : $350K earnt, another $350K locked in, $700K total is my guess.

Loving this Story...


almost business window seat
Originally uploaded by redbarren.
"Sources close to the investigation said bribes had been distributed to ensured Leslie received only a three-month sentence."

Monday, November 21, 2005

Kate upsets Lindsay Lohan + Wins Aussie Idol


vic girl wins idol
Originally uploaded by redbarren.
Paulini knows exactly why Emily didn't win, as do students of American Idol SMS Voting Patterns : The primary voters are white 14 year old girls. Thats why Paulini, who also had a great voice never made The Final. I did think Emily didnt too well in the last fortnight, other than her Whitney Cover. Too late : Tuckshop Lady Wins.

It would be difficult to find a more down-to-earth character among the finalists than Bendigo's Kate DeAraugo.

As a former swimmer, Kate is accustomed to a competitive environment, which should help her handle the enormous pressure of the Australian Idol Finals. Kate may be a self-confessed dag who loves hanging at home in her tracky dacks and footy jumper but after our image-conscious judges exposed appearance as a weakness, Kate has presented herself as a beautiful diva and tirelessly worked at her stage presence. Having been tutored by the great Australian vocalist, Vanetta Fields, Kate's voice and technique has never been in doubt, continuously gaining compliments from our harsh judging panel. Her song choices have been questioned by Mark but when you've got a voice like Kate's, any tune sounds good! As the pressure increases with each new performance, Kate's professional approach to vocals could prove to be the difference.

Lindsay Lohan wins Australian Idol


lohan
Originally uploaded by redbarren.
OOps, she's in the Hamptons. Wrong Image.

Sunday, November 20, 2005

Poor (insert) Ponzi +/or Chris... on Maui


IMG_6851
Originally uploaded by michaelarrington.
At the moment, its pretty much a 7th innings KO to Ponzi although it may go to points (TKO then) with Chris saying "at least I didn't go down without explaining myself first :)" - I shouldnt as a male, support the female (Ponzi), but us males are pretty stupid really, until we are trained by the smarter gender (and like any training it only really happens over years of repetition and the same argument/situations/outcomes) As Brad Feld mentioned months ago, on a Chris/Ponzi podcast, the high quality females dont and shouldnt put up with "it" : So, Chris, unless you can be smarter about what you are or are not saying, better to cave in. Below are only "extracts" from classic relationship material below of Chris and Ponzi's Trip to Maui, sorry for posting it guys.. but you are the ones that (im assuming separately) pressed PUBLISH.

PONZI ON CHRIS - Highlights

"I don't want to fly in a helicopter, we are going to die."

"I'm not doing anything in the water. I refuse to get my head wet."

"The coffee here sucks, Bad Ass Coffee is just that, bad and it tastes like ass."

Me: "Honey how do you like the food, what do you have on your plate?"

Him: (Sticks toungue out to show food on mouth and continues eating.) <>

It's only 9:16am and I'm tired already this morning. All the bad attitude has now rubbed off on me and I'm not sure I can smile and bat every throw he zings at me today. Now I just want to sit on a beach with my ipod on..."

So, I thought my post would end there, but given Ponzi didnt link to Chris and he has so many blogs (its not on memeorandum yet) I had to google search and found chris.pirillo, it appears the couple is communicating by blogging. Chris' reply and extracts here :

CHRIS ON PONZI/HIMSELF - HIGHLIGHTS

Note : The females here will notice Chris talks about himself, while Ponzi talks about Chris' weaknesses.

"... I don't like to get hot, sweaty, and/or hot and sweaty.

I don't like to swim. I don't like the beach.

I don't like flying. When I do fly, my ears go wonky

I'm a coffee snob.

I get headaches on long drives.

I felt out of control when I was snorkeling - uncoordinated, and imbalanced.

In the spa, they took you into a room where another guy scrubbed you down.. I would have been equally uncomfortable in the presence of anybody other than Ponzi."

"Well, at least I didn't go down without explaining myself first. :) Not sure if Scoble has ever tried to explain himself after Maryam divulged his shortcomings. This is better than reality television, ain't it?"

WOW Watch this Ponzi/Pirillo space... Im glad she hasnt destroyed the Video Ipod 60gig she got from Chris before the holiday (obviously her video camera is no good... ouch)

The Double Life of Veronique/Riya


Riya Launch Party
Originally uploaded by Laughing Squid.
Double Life of Veronique won Best Actress (for Irene Jacob) at Cannes in 1991, and was to use a Polish Term : A Kick Ass Film. There seem alot of symbolic parallels (given all The Veronicas (im just wondering if the Aussie band in LA based their name on this movie btw) share in the film is a photo). From WashingtonPost : "Two identical women (both played by Jacob) are born on the same day in different countries. Veronika is Polish, Veronique French. They both have a deep talent for music. Veronika is a choir singer. Veronique is a music teacher. They also share a weak heart condition. Apart from one moment when Veronika catches a glimse of her French counterpart unknowingly photographing her, the women grow up unaware of each other. However they feel an uncanny, vague connection. "I have this feeling that I'm not alone," Veronika tells her father at one point."

Secret 2 Behind Riya's Technology


IMG_6743
Originally uploaded by michaelarrington.
When you have a whole team of technologists doing real time facial recognition behind the computer screen and within the Matrix Grid of Images, you need some energy. In Australia, we call it vegemite.

Secret 1 Behind Riya's Technology


IMG_6785
Originally uploaded by michaelarrington.
Is this guy (and friends) running a realtime facial recognition service for Riya, and is that why no more than a few select alpha accounts have been sent out ? I am going to get to the bottom of this.

What is the Secret Web 2.0 Recipe ?


IMG_6808
Originally uploaded by michaelarrington.
Tara - I know you cant talk about the breakdown of the deal terms or due diligence, you may in fact (likely) not even know. That isnt my question. If you could be so kind : What was the breakdown of the 55 Pizzas ? eg 50% The Lot 25% Pepperoni 25% Vegetarian. From Mr Arrington and his dad looked like he was having fun with his coffee, plus the cops round the corner doing breathtesting for "happy" drivers : "The thing I liked best about this party was that Tara Hunt from Riya and Andrea Reinhardt from Just Starting Up took care of everything - Fifty something pizzas, 20 or more cases of beer, wine and champagne, bags and bags of ice, the A/V system for the demo and tons of tshirts and stickers. Tom Conrad from Pandora chipped in with a complete music system."

The Om Gym Free Karaoke Analytics Mashup


IMG_6739
Originally uploaded by michaelarrington.
I've applied for MeasureMap beta and used Sitemeter for awhile, and just found out that no-one in Australia, except the odd LongTail Camper reads me relative to global audience (btw next Melbourne BBQ/camp/event, same location, Friday week or fortnight) Anyway, I installed Google Analytics before going to see Australia win World Cup qualifier last week and Ive still got similar problems to Fred Wilson : It aint easy, tell me it aint so, it aint easy. Om chips in with the chorus (brackets my words) : "Urchin even when used for a single website... was such a beast (such a beast) siphoned off so many resources, (so many, so many, you are my siphon).. most of the users (like myself) simply relegated it to once a day (then we called you) in the early hours of the morning. (Why was it so ? Why were there so few comments ? I called you, I called you.. fadeout), but there was no answer.." And in conclusion, fix it etc (Trivia Question : If Google has hired over 2000 engineers this year, and had alot working there already what percentage or total number do you think are working on "integrating" acquisitions into finished "betas" ala Google Analytics ? I dont know answer but I like this quote though :) "After all, Content ultimately seeks Attention, and Attention ultimately prices Content."

Her Camera Speaks (again) - 2.0 Brat Pack

I assume Deven's silence is a 2.0 synonym for "due diligence" otherwise known as "going to the G-Y-M", "built to flip", and "Ill have my start-up GEMAYA over easy" : Im not sure what asking for Avocado on the side of scrambled eggs is (my weekend order), but (with silence meaning confirmation "pending" due diligence outcome) its all good to see The Canadian's Hasselblad out again. (Scoble on the night : "I, and a small group, were gathered around Riya CEO Munjal Shah. We were trying to find out if the rumors were true. He wouldn’t confirm nor deny any rumors that Riya was being sold to “G.”)

Billy: Jules, y'know, honey... this isn't real. You know what it is? It's St. Elmo's Fire. Electric flashes of light that appear in dark skies out of nowhere. Sailors would guide entire journeys by it, but the joke was on them... there was no fire. There wasn't even a St. Elmo. They made it up. They made it up because they thought they needed it to keep them going when times got tough, just like you're making up all of this. We're all going through this. It's our time at the edge.

"Now can you f**ken guys f**ken close the deal, I have a f**ken party on and if I f**ken have to turn up to the f**ken party without the f**kn deal it will be f**ken you that f**ken pays OK. I dont care if its the biggest f**kn media f**kn due diligence f**kn whatever you want to f**kn call it company I want the f**kn deal closed before the f**kn filet f**kn mignon comes out. no, no f**kn approval on the tuna steaks till the f**kn MOU is signed. did i f**kn make myself clear ? thankyou. resume what you were doing." - Said vince vaughn in the sequel to swingers, set in mountain view where vince is trying to cut the ultimate code ever but is forever distracted by people selling him retirement, insurance, travel, car, startup ideas, till he snaps.

Buddy: Say this one time with me: "Would you like that in a pump or a loafer?" ...Good. Now memorize it, because starting tomorrow, the only job that you're going to be able to get is selling SHOES!

Update : There was one strange request though at the end of this post, the Lyrics to Roxette's 1995 Song "Vulnerable" which is what happens 2 parties get together and the feeling is strong, but um, like a pre-nup TomKat style.

Lyrics - Vulnerable

Everywhere I look I see her smile
Her absent-minded eyes
And she has kept me wondering for so long
How this thing could go wrong.

It seems to me that we are both the same
Playing the same game
But as darkness falls this true love falls apart
Into a riddle of her heart.

She's so vulnerable, like china in my hands
She's so vulnerable and I don't understand
I could never hurt the one I love
She's all I've got
But she's so vulnerable
Oh so vulnerable.

Days like these no one should be alone
No heart should hide away
Her touch is gently conquering my mind
There's nothing words can say.

She's coloured all the secrets of my soul
I've whispered all my dreams
But just as nighttime falls this vision falls apart
Into a riddle of her heart, yea.

She's so vulnerable, like china in my hands
She's so vulnerable and I don't understand
I could never hurt someone I love
She's all I've got
But she's so vulnerable
Oh so vulnerable.

Don't hide your eyes...

From Mr Feld : No Shop Agreement: "..The Company agrees to work in good faith expeditiously towards a closing. The Company and the Founders agree that they will not, directly or indirectly, (i) take any action to solicit, initiate, encourage or assist the submission of any proposal, negotiation or offer from any person or entity other than the Investors relating to the sale or issuance, of any of the capital stock of the Company or the acquisition, sale, lease, license or other disposition of the Company or any material part of the stock or assets of the Company, or (ii) enter into any discussions, negotiations or execute any agreement related to any of the foregoing, and shall notify the Investors promptly of any inquiries by any third parties in regards to the foregoing. Should both parties agree that definitive documents shall not be executed pursuant to this term sheet, then the Company shall have no further obligations under this section.”

At some level the no shop agreement – like serial monogamy – is more of an emotional commitment; it’s very hard to “enforce a no shop agreement” in a financing, but if you get caught cheating, your financing will probably go the same way as the analogous situation when the groom or the bride to be gets caught in a compromising situation.

At some level, the no shop agreement reinforces the handshake that says “ok – let’s get a deal done – no more fooling around looking for a better / different one.” In all cases, the entrepreneur should bound the no shop by a time period – usually 45 to 60 days is plenty (and you can occasionally get a VC to agree to a 30 day no shop.) This makes the commitment bi-directional - you agree not to shop the deal; the VC agrees to get things done within a reasonable time frame..."

Nick: Fuck you. Who the fuck are you? Are you fucking with me? I...
Bill Foster: I am just disagreeing with you. In America, we have the freedom of speech. The right to disagree.
Nick: Fuck you and your freedom.

Dont Mess with Patrick Scoble Snr oops Jnr


Women from Bucaramanga
Originally uploaded by zuan.
Patricks a kick ass young dude (he starts his blog with "I'm the son of a 40 year old blogger") that will never use Microsoft, untill he speaks to George Lucas and Bill Gates, and crosses to the Dark Side. Therein the Prequel : "I'm here at my uncle Tony's house right now and I'm useing his eMac to blog with and this thing is my test computer (for when I get a Mac) so I know what every thing looks like and stuff and I've came to this conclusion...it's slow, old, and slow. It's so old theres not a iTunes version past 3.1 that can get on this thing and there's no garageband. It's also very very slow so E is not very good for education unless you want too sit there for hours wating for something to load, though I did get Camino on here though and it's beautiful and blogger is better on this browser than Safari's version of it."

Sunday Riffing + the Colours of the 2.0 Rainbow


Fast Bus to Heaven :-)
Originally uploaded by zuan.
I was reading Fred Wilson to see what's going on in East Coast VC and del.icio.us tagging and he had recommended Riffs - which I had forwarded yesterday due its kewl design featured on The 37 Signals : Noise blog. I've just wasted my Sunday morning riffing. Fun. Site here. (my username is benbarren - i dont think i can link to page directly : It is an "Alpha" now that "Beta" means finished user product.)

I've been working alot on UI/design, and I'm trying to resolve whether you go leading edge users and ugly. (del.icio.us) Or teenage users and ugly. (myspace and tagworld ive been testing) The default design of course for Web 2.0 is supposed to be classic/beautiful, mainstream (with a partial tech audience skew) and a bit too blog cartoony for me (eg techcrunch, simplyhired, indeed, g-riya, goowy, kaboodle) Browse thru TechCrunch and you'll notice profiled companies (at moment) using baby blues, lime greens for their brand signifiers. Throw in a dash of blood (rojo, riffs, rollyo - which i also used last night - fun) AND the still kewl impact of Dan Cederholm's pink/black for Odeo and you have quite a problem in briefing your designer for a 2.0 project (i wont even go near coordinating the UI elements of ajax, xhtml, css interface between product / design /coding) : Personally I dont like leaving too many questions unanswered for the designer (while giving them freedom to come up with something original)

I like riffs because it is fun, but not too "weak" which I find some of the green and blue companies are. (for those going mainstream and women user skew I think thats fine, and some rogues do it well) Brad Feld rightly mentioned he'd been seeing alot of companies replicating the Search "User Precedent" of White Background, Blue Headline, Black Text, Green Hyperlink. (i do like alot what sphere have done)

My final riff is whether Riffs (and companies like Kaboodle) are competitors to del.icio.us ? I did things on Riffs today, I have never or cant (yet) or wouldnt on del.icio.us such as upload images. Or on Kaboodle, it's Shopping tagging/sharing/categorising. Riff's also an interface I can see alot of the early and mid-majority using, maybe although it doesnt have the anti-establishment messed up appeal of myspace, so id think teens wont use it. It's still a bit too much of an OpenAPI into Amazon or whichever sources it uses for its directory. (which is very impressive as well : it allows you to riff on a range of specific items in categories, or you can add your own) I was able to import my del.icio.us links and tags into riffs (not that im sure its really useful), as all of us are sick of even registering for a new service, let alone redefining our implicit and explicit "attention" ontologies. Is del.icio.us the master or slave here ?

Saturday, November 19, 2005

Michelle's 3 Month Bali e-Jail-Hangover Finishes


michelle rich + untouchable
Originally uploaded by redbarren.
Well it isnt a bubble because there aren't IPO's yet, and while in Bali dont even think about putting illegal pills in a fake Gucci bag even if you do know The A3 Diplomatic Chop Chops or you are travelling with local royalty. Michelle is out. First TV interview early next week (about her 3 month adventure with Indonesian jail), will net Michelle est. $250K. Tip of the Iceberg. Im hoping she goes from B-grade underwear model to Uber Celeb with edge. Im sure we can get Michelle to promote a 2006 2 Point Oh IPO for Australia's next rapidly peaking 2.0 experience. Now here is someone I would love to grab the iriver attach the lapelle mic and "hear the truth". Sick Em Rex. Yep, she could be a more subversive Mary Donaldson if some 80 year old doesnt manage her.

Reese Witherspoon Calling Adam Curry


im leaving you ryan
Originally uploaded by
redbarren.
"Hi Adam, I just tryed to call you but some guy called Ron answered the phone. I was just calling because I'm a friend of Soccergirls and Im just wondering if she, like you know, pashed and did it Ontario style with Brother Love. Poor Ryan. Shucks, those Ryans have all the bad luck. Anyway, call me, I'd love to meet at the Ivy and talk about the Podsafe Delivery Network. Podcasting is soo hot right now. So what is the Podsafe Delivery Network again Adam ? 'Oh, thats my agent', we're doing a sequel to Election, where I was actually very kewl - some said the right amount of sardonic. Later Ads. Pass on my best to Christina on the MySpace Safe Network. Nice pics Chrissie."

Friday, November 18, 2005

Soccergirl cant afford Podhosting

Help Soccergirl. At Portable Media Expo, Soccergirl rocked with / and rumoured pash with (Chemdas teenage crush) Brother Love : one of Adam Curry's Podsafe posterboys (soon to be heard on the Podshow's "We are the World" Xmas like benefit) Brother Love types are becoming very popular in Podshow land now that European record forces are conveniently conspiring to stop Mashups on the Daily Source Code, targeting Curry directly as he has highest profile and most assets me guess. Soccergirl is your classic podcaster - Her dads a psychiatrist, she's a well educated slacker, can and does bust it true freestyle, and a librarian during the day - with glasses to boot.

For last 5 months, Soccergirl had been receiving free podcast hosting from Purecast Media, but now they cant even handle their $6K credit card bill for all the free podhosting they've been giving away over the last few months. Unfortunately now we cant even find out what happened with Brother Love + Soccergirl. Maybe it's all those kewl videos soccergirl has been doing in the last 2 months, esp since the Video Ipod launched - that has driven up bandwith costs. Anyway, Madge has called Adam, Adam has mentioned it on the DSC. And soon they may be in the DarkFibre-Podshowplex. This is where Mitch Ratcliffe, companies like Audible need to realise young talent need basic help, and they will pay it back substantially over time. Its the basics - Hosting, Bandwith, Website, Some statistics, Revenue Share etc : It may well be Adam Curry who continues to consolidate this space as few seem able to pick the assets, podcasters, technologies, deal structures that make sense for this stage of the market.

In this case, Soccergirl, regularly in the PodcastAlley top 10 all year, 2-3 shows a week, original material, has sent the cry out for help, I wonder who will reply ???? Damn, Adam Curry talks about a Podsafe Record Label, what is needed is a "Independent" Podcasting Label, helping podcasters ! Good luck Soccergirl...

Fred Wilson's Google is Lame


keira kewl
Originally uploaded by redbarren.
Im glad Im not the only one that has been mentioning this. Now The Default Illuminati East Coast Chairman says so I'm happy. BTW Fred : Can we take del.icio.us mainstream and present a real challenge to Google ? Enough baby steps. Note I consider del.icio.us the most important, unique, discovery, classification and sharing tool since Google. From A VC : "While I am venting about Google this morning, I may as well share a feeling I've had lately about Google. They are lame. Not in their core search product which remains the single greatest web service in existence. But in many of their recent initiatives, Google has introduced a delay between submit and display."

Google to pay more than a Flickr


jen still flexible
Originally uploaded by redbarren.
Many have outlined the behaviours of a Web 2.0 company : 3 months to develop a "beta" / $100K seed budget / flip to the "natural owner" - which is M+A talk for going to the G-Y-M with the Big Three. (which is now being spoken about again incl Eran) Deven is happy.

When your facial recognition technology has recently announced $4m of VC (the terms of which are interesting given acquisition a fortnight later ?? im wondering if there is a clause which returns base amount plus basic interest back to investors or if they bought the house), has 22 or so employees, throw in the most prolific marketing blog princess (and given Tara isnt blogging this must be happening), and the return required to make the deal acceptable to Riya shareholders would have to meet the mentioned $40m-$60M range. That Riya may end up being bought for near twice that of Flickr (rumours were around $30M) is ironic given many use Flickr as their definition of Web 2.0. The price now is officially Web 1.5.

Just as Ebay wanted and thought it needed Skype, so Google at 1/100th of the Skype purchase price see Riya as a defensive way to extend their "image" business (GIM, Picasa), plus ability to use algorithms for big picture projects, and acquire another 22 engineering skewed staff. I think there also is a Bangalore and Adsense for Images play/catalyst going on here too. Whether the acquisition will include Tara Hunt's "free beer and parties" blogging prowess is subject only to a group of people working frantically we assume on closing the deal, pre Atherton launch BBQ; As Dave Winer accurately describes.

What I find interesting is the redefinition of M+A terms from Web 1.0, in which there was still the same "sector of the week" trend, but acquisitions were often about buying "eyeballs", preferably at a discounted or inflated price. (NBCi/Xoom was cheap, Yahoo/Geocities expensive, etc) The current deals use classic R+D acquisition methodologies, focused on proprietary technology and quality engineers : At $40M there is a vhigh premium for Riya technology and engineers. While Google may not be buying unique users, there is definitely a "buzz" factor that is being bought; Bloggers, in effect, have done the first part of Google's due diligence (or provided the impetus for it anyway) : Riya smartly drip fed alpha testers based on reach and influence : Google may not buy advertising, but it does know how to buy buzz.

What I do hope is that the plans Riya had for their service do not become solely subsumed or redeployed within the Googleplex, and that out there somewhere is another company developing post Google, post Riya search and image technology, because another one might have just successfully bit the dust.

Reese: Defense network computers. New... powerful... hooked into everything, trusted to run it all. They say it got smart, a new order of intelligence. Then it saw all people as a threat, not just the ones on the other side. Decided our fate in a microsecond: extermination.

John Connor: [voiceover] The future has not been written. There is no fate but what we make for ourselves. I wish I could believe that. My name is John Connor, they tried to murder me before I was born, when I was 13 they tried again. Machines from the future. Terminators. All my life my mother told me the storm was coming, Judgment Day, the beginning of the war between man and machines. Three billion lives would vanish in an instant, and I would lead what was left of the human race to ultimate victory. It hasn't happened, no bombs fell, computers didn't take control, we stopped Judgment Day. I should feel safe, but I don't, so I live off the grid - no phone, no address, no one and nothing can find me. I've erased all connections to the past, but as hard as I try I can't erase my dreams, my nightmares.

John Connor: Can you learn stuff you haven't been programmed with so you could be... you know, more human? And not such a dork all the time?

The Terminator: My CPU is a neural net processor; a learning computer. But Skynet pre-sets the switch to read-only when we're sent out alone.

Sarah Connor: Doesn't want you doing too much thinking, huh?
The Terminator: No.

John Connor: No, no, no, no. You gotta listen to the way people talk. You don't say "affirmative," or some shit like that. You say "no problemo." And if someone comes on to you with an attitude you say "eat me." And if you want to shine them on it's "hasta la vista, baby."

The Terminator: Hasta la vista, baby.

John Connor: Yeah! Or "later dickwad." And if someone gets upset you say, "chill out"! Or you can do combinations.

The Terminator: Chill out, dickwad.

John Connor: Great! See, you're getting it!

The Terminator: No problemo.