"What about a new media giant buying YouTube ? Nope"

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Originally uploaded by benbarren.

Battelle doesnt grok the $1B buyout rumour for YouTube. Following the where there's smoke there's fire model, if markets are just an aggregation of different parties perception of value at a point of time, the 2005 GEMAYA culture of Yahoo flipping 2.0 burgers for $25m to $50m, seems well and truly replaced in 2006 by whispers if not reality of $500m to $2b buyouts. (2.0 rumoured prices are tracking on par with Google's capex spending)

I've gotta say alot of people search for youtube on gnoos. Industrywide, early 2005 vs late 2006, its amazing much how things have changed valuationwise. I wonder what flickr would be worth if it had stayed independent and executed on the video space ? More than $35m ? Is YouTube or Flickr more valuable ? (id actually be interested in people's thoughts on that)

Either way, incorrect rumours now have another zero and more, vs last year. Definitely bubbly, but also like a red rag to late to market VC's, Media Co's and Public Portals looking for that easy billion dollar home run or unique visitor boost. (never do a meeting with anyone that says "sticky" in relation to the frequency and depth of a website visit)

Battelle : "What about a new media giant buying YouTube - Yahoo, say, or Google? Or Microsoft? Nope, nope, nope. Yahoo is a media company, and acts like one. Google doesn't have it in its DNA to run a service like YouTube (though Google, with its Switzerland like approach to content, is the best fit, in my opinion). And Microsoft? They don't need any more legal headaches over in Redmond right now."

Lots of analysis was also done on how no-one would buy Skype, because of its perceived negative sum game. Ebay however, at a parent company level, wanted to own peer to peer interactions and transactions, and Skype was a unique complementary asset to Ebay, just as Paypal was perceived and is. And then there are growth rates which companies from google down are judged by. (the P/E-G ratio)

Much has been made about NBC and the like partnering with YouTube, after initial frosty legal parlays. Who's to say this isnt try before you buy ?

Irrespective of potential court cases other media companies not experiencing NewsCorp's 16%+ stock spike thx to MySpace would have to look seriously at YouTube. Ditto slow following portals that want to cement a Top 10 traffic position.

If YouTube's selling price is $1b, my guess would be willing buyers would be more in the $500m-$700m space. (cheaper than myspace would probably be something you could get your boss to approve, but double is probably too much) I guess the VC's are playing high stakes chicken again :)

ENews : "Nobody's Watching," back in the game after its never-aired pilot popped up on YouTube last month, will be revived by NBC in a series of new made-for-the-Internet episodes, the network has announced. Additionally, NBC has ordered scripts with an eye toward making the show a prime-time player. The moves mark the first time a crashed network pilot has gotten back off the ground thanks to the Web. "This comedy pilot has generated a life of its own, and we are intrigued by its potential to develop into a series," NBC Entertainment president Kevin Reilly. "Sometimes, if you show it, they will come."