GEMAYA - Crunching the Numbers, A Start
During the pre-early stage-boom, one of my favourite analysts who "published" for free on the net (thru meckler's internet.com) was Steve Harmon; Between 1997-99 Harmon rocked. (before it went pear shaped and he couldnt pull a Meeker) His tables were focused on profit, revenue and unique user multiples relative to market cap (with a focus on identifying undervalued companies with viral growth and unique users before CMGi, Softbank etc), so I thought it neat to apply some of these methodologies (like ajax eh ?) and analyse beta, growing and public 2.0 companies. With blogging, its very easy to avoid things like financial analysis. Im going to build on this, but PLEASE feel free to add revenue, paying subscriber, registered member and anonymous unique user numbers. Once GEMAYA is done, I'd like to move onto some of the classic 2.0 segments - blogging, tagging, podcasting, RSS, social networking, image/video uploading, etc :
Mkt Cap / Price-Earnings Ratio (need to add revenue, annual growth forecasts %, registered members, paying subscribers and unique users - feel free to add as comments or hyperlink)
G (GOOGLE) - $109B, 86 P/E
E (EBAY) - $61B, 61 P/E
M (MICROSOFT/MSN) - $290B, 23 P/E
A (AMAZON) - $17B, 35 P/E
Y (YAHOO) - $54B, 35 P/E
A (AOL/TIME WARNER) - $83B mkt cap, 31 P/E incl Time Warner
Others.
IACI - $9.2B mkt cap, 6.6 P/E
NEWSCORP : $48B, 21 P/E
APPLE : $51B, 39 P/E
Obviously Google's P/E is substantially higher than other companies, even when higher growth rate is taken into account. ("Outlier" "Fully Priced" etc) Personally if someone said I could have Yahoo, Amazon (just launched tagging), and Interactive Corp or Apple and NewsCorp I'd be taking either or. Revenue and user modelling to come in next few days.
Mkt Cap / Price-Earnings Ratio (need to add revenue, annual growth forecasts %, registered members, paying subscribers and unique users - feel free to add as comments or hyperlink)
G (GOOGLE) - $109B, 86 P/E
E (EBAY) - $61B, 61 P/E
M (MICROSOFT/MSN) - $290B, 23 P/E
A (AMAZON) - $17B, 35 P/E
Y (YAHOO) - $54B, 35 P/E
A (AOL/TIME WARNER) - $83B mkt cap, 31 P/E incl Time Warner
Others.
IACI - $9.2B mkt cap, 6.6 P/E
NEWSCORP : $48B, 21 P/E
APPLE : $51B, 39 P/E
Obviously Google's P/E is substantially higher than other companies, even when higher growth rate is taken into account. ("Outlier" "Fully Priced" etc) Personally if someone said I could have Yahoo, Amazon (just launched tagging), and Interactive Corp or Apple and NewsCorp I'd be taking either or. Revenue and user modelling to come in next few days.
posted by redbarren at 8:58 PM
4 Comments:
you probably want to also look at free cash flow.
that number is harder to fudge.
(see http://www.fool.com/dripport/2002/dripport020228.htm )
roughly speaking (w/o adding the data you mention on revenue, growth, subscriber #'s etc, which would be quite educational), i think the points to be made are these:
1) Google, Yahoo, and Microsoft (aka 'Tier 1' players) all have the capability to pull off broad-based search, content, and applications -- almost no one else is in the same category across the board. They all have the capability to do broad-based web services, and they all have large market caps & large user base. They may not have the whole package (yet), but they're all headed there along various paths.
2) EBay, Amazon, Apple (aka Tier 2) -- these guys all have 1 or 2 killer offerings in some area or another, but probably not across the board. Ebay does used goods retailing & payments, Amazon does books & consumer electronics & some other stuff, Apple does music & PCs & some other stuff. Dominant in an area, but not quite across the board.
3) AOL/TWX, IACI/ASK, Newscorp/Myspace (aka Tier 3) -- these folks all have interesting companies & combinations of services, but not really dominant in any one area; rather just a good overall package. of these, AOL probably does a deal of some sort with a Tier 1 firm soon. IAC has some good chess pieces, but is definitely a dark horse. News/Myspace seems interesting, particularly if MySpace keeps growing & NewsCorp keeps buying.
don't know if i'm missing anyone else notable, or other metrics that move them up or down, but in regard to the scorecard those are probably the main players for now. (at least for US market, definitely other players if you consider intl, particularly china)
- dave mcclure
http://www.SimplyHired.com
thanks dave and ian : im really going to try and develop a common sense but useable matrix for us to understand sense from sensibility... im esp keen to see if we can take the numbers outside of public companies... to private concerns.. :) so we can identify fast growth leaders in key segments etc
Thought I'd put this into a spreadsheet for you: gemaya market caps
When you've got the final matrix, I'll probably convert that, too.
Post a Comment
<< Home